Intraspecific variability of leaf form and function across habitat types.

Trait-based ecology has already revealed main independent axes of trait variation defining trait spaces that summarize plant adaptive strategies, but often ignoring intraspecific trait variability (ITV). By using empirical ITV-level data for two independent dimensions of leaf form and function and 167 species across five habitat types (coastal dunes, forests, grasslands, heathlands, wetlands) in the Italian peninsula, we found that ITV: (i) rotated the axes of trait variation that define the trait space; (ii) increased the variance explained by these axes and (iii) affected the functional structure of the target trait space. However, the magnitude of these effects was rather small and depended on the trait and habitat type. Our results reinforce the idea that ITV is context-dependent, calling for careful extrapolations of ITV patterns across traits and spatial scales. Importantly, our study provides a framework that can be used to start integrating ITV into trait space analyses.

Leaf-level coordination principles propagate to the ecosystem scale.

Fundamental axes of variation in plant traits result from trade-offs between costs and benefits of resource-use strategies at the leaf scale. However, it is unclear whether similar trade-offs propagate to the ecosystem level. Here, we test whether trait correlation patterns predicted by three well-known leaf- and plant-level coordination theories - the leaf economics spectrum, the global spectrum of plant form and function, and the least-cost hypothesis - are also observed between community mean traits and ecosystem processes. We combined ecosystem functional properties from FLUXNET sites, vegetation properties, and community mean plant traits into three corresponding principal component analyses. We find that the leaf economics spectrum (90 sites), the global spectrum of plant form and function (89 sites), and the least-cost hypothesis (82 sites) all propagate at the ecosystem level. However, we also find evidence of additional scale-emergent properties. Evaluating the coordination of ecosystem functional properties may aid the development of more realistic global dynamic vegetation models with critical empirical data, reducing the uncertainty of climate change projections.

Distance decay 2.0 - A global synthesis of taxonomic and functional turnover in ecological communities.

Aim: Understanding the variation in community composition and species abundances (i.e., ß-diversity) is at the heart of community ecology. A common approach to examine ß-diversity is to evaluate directional variation in community composition by measuring the decay in the similarity among pairs of communities along spatial or environmental distance. We provide the first global synthesis of taxonomic and functional distance decay along spatial and environmental distance by analysing 148 datasets comprising different types of organisms and environments. Location: Global. Time period: 1990 to present. Major taxa studied: From diatoms to mammals. Method: We measured the strength of the decay using ranked Mantel tests (Mantel r) and the rate of distance decay as the slope of an exponential fit using generalized linear models. We used null models to test whether functional similarity decays faster or slower than expected given the taxonomic decay along the spatial and environmental distance. We also unveiled the factors driving the rate of decay across the datasets, including latitude, spatial extent, realm and organismal features. Results: Taxonomic distance decay was stronger than functional distance decay along both spatial and environmental distance. Functional distance decay was random given the taxonomic distance decay. The rate of taxonomic and functional spatial distance decay was fastest in the datasets from mid-latitudes. Overall, datasets covering larger spatial extents showed a lower rate of decay along spatial distance but a higher rate of decay along environmental distance. Marine ecosystems had the slowest rate of decay along environmental distances. Main conclusions: In general, taxonomic distance decay is a useful tool for biogeographical research because it reflects dispersal-related factors in addition to species responses to climatic and environmental variables. Moreover, functional distance decay might be a cost-effective option for investigating community changes in heterogeneous environments.

Within-species variation of seed traits of dune engineering species across a European climatic gradient.

Within-species variation is a key component of biodiversity and linking it to climatic gradients may significantly improve our understanding of ecological processes. High variability can be expected in plant traits, but it is unclear to which extent it varies across populations under different climatic conditions. Here, we investigated seed trait variability and its environmental dependency across a latitudinal gradient of two widely distributed dune-engineering species (Thinopyrum junceum and Calamagrostis arenaria). Seed germination responses against temperature and seed mass were compared within and among six populations exposed to a gradient of temperature and precipitation regimes (Spiekeroog, DE; Bordeaux, FR; Valencia, ES; Cagliari, IT, Rome, IT; Venice, IT). Seed germination showed opposite trends in response to temperature experienced during emergence in both species: with some expectation, in populations exposed to severe winters, seed germination was warm-cued, whereas in populations from warm sites with dry summer, seed germination was cold-cued. In C. arenaria, variability in seed germination responses disappeared once the seed coat was incised. Seed mass from sites with low precipitation was smaller than that from sites with higher precipitation and was better explained by rainfall continentality than by aridity in summer. Within-population variability in seed germination accounted for 5 to 54%, while for seed mass it was lower than 40%. Seed trait variability can be considerable both within- and among-populations even at broad spatial scale. The variability may be hardly predictable since it only partially correlated with the analyzed climatic variables, and with expectation based on the climatic features of the seed site of origin. Considering seed traits variability in the analysis of ecological processes at both within- and among-population levels may help elucidate unclear patterns of species dynamics, thereby contributing to plan adequate measures to counteract biodiversity loss.

Global relationships in tree functional traits.

Due to massive energetic investments in woody support structures, trees are subject to unique physiological, mechanical, and ecological pressures not experienced by herbaceous plants. Despite a wealth of studies exploring trait relationships across the entire plant kingdom, the dominant traits underpinning these unique aspects of tree form and function remain unclear. Here, by considering 18 functional traits, encompassing leaf, seed, bark, wood, crown, and root characteristics, we quantify the multidimensional relationships in tree trait expression. We find that nearly half of trait variation is captured by two axes: one reflecting leaf economics, the other reflecting tree size and competition for light. Yet these orthogonal axes reveal strong environmental convergence, exhibiting correlated responses to temperature, moisture, and elevation. By subsequently exploring multidimensional trait relationships, we show that the full dimensionality of trait space is captured by eight distinct clusters, each reflecting a unique aspect of tree form and function. Collectively, this work identifies a core set of traits needed to quantify global patterns in functional biodiversity, and it contributes to our fundamental understanding of the functioning of forests worldwide.

Impact of invasive alien plants on native plant communities and Natura 2000 habitats: State of the art, gap analysis and perspectives in Italy.

Invasive alien plants are a major threat to biodiversity and they contribute to the unfavourable conservation status of habitats of interest to the European Community. In order to favour implementation of European Union Regulation no. 1143/2014 on invasive alien species, the Italian Society of Vegetation Science carried out a large survey led by a task force of 49 contributors with expertise in vegetation across all the Italian administrative regions. The survey summed up the knowledge on impact mechanisms of invasive alien plants in Italy and their outcomes on plant communities and the EU habitats of Community Interest, in accordance with Directive no. 92/43/EEC. The survey covered 241 alien plant species reported as having deleterious ecological impacts. The data collected illustrate the current state of the art, highlight the main gaps in knowledge, and suggest topics to be further investigated. In particular, the survey underlined competition as being the main mechanism of ecological impact on plant communities and Natura 2000 habitats. Of the 241 species, only Ailanthus altissima was found to exert an ecological impact on plant communities and Natura 2000 habitats in all Italian regions; while a further 20 species impact up to ten out of the 20 Italian administrative regions. Our data indicate that 84 out of 132 Natura 2000 Habitats (64%) are subjected to some degree of impact by invasive alien plants. Freshwater habitats and natural and semi-natural grassland formations were impacted by the highest number of alien species, followed by coastal sand dunes and inland dunes, and forests. Although not exhaustive, this research is the first example of nationwide evaluation of the ecological impacts of invasive alien plants on plant communities and Natura 2000 Habitats.

Phosphorylation of GATA4 at serine 105 is required for left ventricular remodelling process in angiotensin II-induced hypertension in rats.

In this study, we investigated whether local intramyocardial GATA4 overexpression affects the left ventricular (LV) remodelling process and the importance of phosphorylation at serine 105 (S105) for the actions of GATA4 in an angiotensin II (AngII)-induced hypertension rat model. Adenoviral constructs overexpressing wild-type GATA4 or GATA4 mutated at S105 were delivered into the anterior LV free wall. AngII (33.3 µg/kg/h) was administered via subcutaneously implanted minipumps. Cardiac function and structure were examined by echocardiography, followed by histological immunostainings of LV sections and gene expression measurements by RT-qPCR. The effects of GATA4 on cultured neonatal rat ventricular fibroblasts were evaluated. In AngII-induced hypertension, GATA4 overexpression repressed fibrotic gene expression, reversed the hypertrophic adult-to-foetal isoform switch of myofibrillar genes and prevented apoptosis, whereas histological fibrosis was not affected. Overexpression of GATA4 mutated at S105 resulted in LV chamber dilatation, cardiac dysfunction and had minor effects on expression of myocardial remodelling genes. Fibrotic gene expression in cardiac fibroblasts was differently affected by overexpression of wild-type or mutated GATA4. Our results indicate that GATA4 reduces AngII-induced responses by interfering with pro-fibrotic and hypertrophic gene expressions. GATA4 actions on LV remodelling and fibroblasts are dependent on phosphorylation site S105.

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access.

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.

Multiple drivers of plant diversity in coastal dunes: A Mediterranean experience.

In light of the global biodiversity loss, syntheses of the available knowledge about drivers of biodiversity are becoming increasingly important. However, despite the high number of studies analyzing patterns of plant species diversity, few attempts have been made to synthesize findings within different ecosystems. In this work, the relative role of a wide set of predictors imputable to three conceptual-methodological domains (abiotic, human-mediated disturbance and landscape domain, hereafter AD, DD and LD) was simultaneously analyzed in 644 random plots distributed along the coastal dunes of Central Italy. Native species richness and focal species cover, both field-recorded, were used as response variables. Predictors pertaining to the three domains were derived from both field surveys and high-resolution remotely sensed imagery (LiDAR and orthophotos). To test how AD, DD and LD affect native species richness and focal species cover, a GLM and a linear model were fitted respectively. The three domains were then ranked according to their relative importance. Although the role of the three domains was always significant, they turned out to unequally contribute to the explanation of native species richness and focal species cover patterns. For Mediterranean coastal dune ecosystems, AD appears to be the key biodiversity driver, followed by DD and LD. Our results suggest that as long as human disturbance is limited, plant diversity will distribute according to species abiotic tolerances, regardless of habitat loss and fragmentation per se. Representing a first effort towards a synthesis of plant diversity drivers in coastal dunes, this work points to the importance, in Mediterranean coastal dune ecosystems, of zonation dynamics, whose occurrence should be addressed as a priority issue by efficient conservations strategies.

Plasma Orexin-A Levels Do Not Undergo Circadian Rhythm in Young Healthy Male Subjects.

Orexin-A (OXA) has been originally isolated from a precursor peptide prepro-orexin from the lateral hypothalamus. The orexin system has been attributed to important functions in sleep, arousal and regulation of energy homeostasis. In addition to its high levels in cerebrospinal fluid, OXA is present in blood. However, reported peptide concentrations in plasma vary significantly depending on the method used. Therefore, a specific and sensitive OXA radioimmunoassay (RIA) with solid phase extraction method was developed to determine whether plasma OXA concentrations is affected by acute feeding and/or wake and sleep in young healthy males. Blood samples were collected for 24 h from nine healthy males (aged 20-24 years; BMI 20.7-26.5) every 2 h starting at 11 a.m. Food was served at 12 p.m, 5:30 p.m, 8 p.m and 8 a.m and the sleep time was between 10 p.m and 7 a.m. Plasma samples were analyzed in addition for cortisol and melatonin levels. Blood pressure was monitored through the experimental period. OXA antibody was raised in rabbits. OXA antiserum had only minor cross-reactivity with prepro-orexin precursor (<0.001%), amino-terminal peptide (<0.001%), carboxy-terminal peptide (0.001%), and orexin-B (0.3%) with high sensitivity (0.15 pg/tube). Plasma OXA levels varied between 0.5 and 16 pg/ml in seven subjects and were undetectable (below 0.5 pg/ml) in two subjects. The OXA concentrations did not correlate to feeding nor wake/sleep, whereas cortisol, melatonin and mean arterial blood pressure presented a clear circadian rhythm in each subject. In conclusion, OXA is present in blood in low amounts and its levels do not follow autonomic nor neuroendocrine circadian rhythms. Thereby, studies examining regulatory mechanisms and influences of OXA from blood samples should interpret results very cautiously.

Pervasive plastisphere: First record of plastics in egagropiles (Posidonia spheroids).

The ability of Posidonia oceanica spheroids (egagropiles, EG) to incorporate plastics was investigated along the central Italy coast. Plastics were found in the 52.84% of the egagropiles collected (n = 685). The more represented size of plastics has range within 1-1.5 cm, comparable to the size of natural fibres. Comparing plastics occurring both in EG and in surrounding sand, Polyethylene, Polyester and Nylon were the most abundant polymers in EG, while PSE, PE, PP and PET were the most represented in sand. In particular PE and PP were significantly more represented in sand, while PE, Nylon, Polyester and microfibers (as pills) were more represented in EG. Within plastics found in EG, 26.9% were microfibers as small pills (<1 cm), mainly composed of polyamide, polyester, cotton and PET mixing. These microfibers might be produced by discharges from washing machines and currently represents an emerging pollutant with widespread distribution in marine and freshwater ecosystems.

Plastisphere in action: evidence for an interaction between expanded polystyrene and dunal plants.

Among the many threats that can be recorded on sandy beaches, plastic litter represents a serious problem for these complex and endangered ecosystems. Expanded polystyrene (EPS) is increasingly abundant as a form of plastic litter in natural environments, particularly along shores and waterways. Nevertheless, despite the great number of scientific articles concerning the impact of litter on animal species, there are still no research focusing on the interaction between this type of beach litter and other biodiversity components. In this work, we reported the first evidence of interactions between EPS and living plants along a sandy beach of Tyrrhenian central Italy. We sampled 540 EPS items, mainly deriving from fishery activities (>75%). We obtained evidence for an interaction between EPS and plants: about 5% of items resulted perforated or have roots of three species (Phragmites australis, Spartina versicolor, Anthemis maritima). Apparently, we did not observed a relationship between plants and EPS items size. More research is needed to assess if the plant assemblage growing on EPS is random or if peculiar substrate exerts some sort of selection on the plant community.

Transcription factor PEX1 modulates extracellular matrix turnover through regulation of MMP-9 expression.

The phenylephrine-induced complex-1 (PEX1) transcription factor, also known as zinc-finger protein 260 (Zfp260), is an effector of endothelin-1 and α1-adrenergic signaling in cardiac hypertrophy. However, the role of PEX1 in transcriptional regulation of myocardial remodeling remains largely unknown. In the present study, we used PEX1 gain- and loss-of-function to examine the effects of PEX1 on left ventricular remodeling. Adenoviral constructs expressing PEX1, antisense PEX1, or LacZ were delivered by local injection into the anterior wall of the left ventricle in Sprague-Dawley rats. PEX1 overexpression led to induction of hypertrophic gene program and increased fibrosis. In agreement with this, the expression of genes involved in the fibrotic process, such as collagens I and III, matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs), fibronectin-1, transforming growth factor beta-1 and connective tissue growth factor, were significantly up-regulated following PEX1 overexpression, whereas silencing of PEX1 significantly inhibited the expression of pro-fibrotic genes and increased left ventricular ejection fraction and fractional shortening. In vitro luciferase reporter assays showed that PEX1 regulates the expression of MMP-9 by activating promoter. Furthermore, PEX1 gain- and loss-of-function experiments in rat neonatal cardiac fibroblasts and myocytes revealed that MMP-9 gene expression was affected by PEX1 predominantly in fibroblasts. Our results indicate that PEX1 is involved in regulating cardiac fibrosis and extracellular matrix turnover, particularly fibroblasts being responsible for the fibrosis-associated changes in gene expression. Furthermore, PEX1 activation of the MMP-9 promoter triggers the pro-fibrotic response directed by PEX1.

The cotton buds beach: Marine litter assessment along the Tyrrhenian coast of central Italy following the marine strategy framework directive criteria.

We assessed the annual accumulation rates of beach litter on the Tyrrhenian coast of central Italy, providing the characterization of litter following European standardized guidelines. Three different sites of a beach were sampled seasonally from spring 2014 to winter 2015. A total of 31,739 items were removed and classified into 103 categories. Plastic represented the majority (94.4%) of the collected items. We detected temporal and spatial differences in the abundance and composition of litter between seasons and between sites. Furthermore, we found that plastic cotton bud sticks composed >30% of the total amount of litter and, together with plastic and polystyrene pieces, made up >70% of the total items. Finally, our results led us to propose that the most effective strategy to reduce litter pollution is to devise specific management procedures focusing on the most abundant items.

Temporal Changes in Forest Contexts at Multiple Extents: Three Decades of Fragmentation in the Gran Chaco (1979-2010), Central Argentina.

The context in which a forest exists strongly influences its function and sustainability. Unveiling the multi-scale nature of forest fragmentation context is crucial to understand how human activities affect the spatial patterns of forests across a range of scales. However, this issue remains almost unexplored in subtropical ecosystems. In this study, we analyzed temporal changes (1979-2010) in forest contexts in the Argentinean dry Chaco at multiple extents. We classified forests over the last three decades based on forest context amount (Pf) and structural connectivity (Pff), which were measured using a moving window approach fixed at eight different extents (from local, ~ 6 ha, to regional, ~ 8300 ha). Specific multi-scale forest context profiles (for the years 1979 and 2010) were defined by projecting Pf vs. Pff mean values and were compared across spatial extents. The distributions of Pf across scales were described by scalograms and their shapes over time were compared. The amount of agricultural land and rangelands across the scales were also analyzed. The dry Chaco has undergone an intensive process of fragmentation, resulting in a shift from landscapes dominated by forests with gaps of rangelands to landscapes where small forest patches are embedded in agricultural lands. Multi-scale fragmentation analysis depicted landscapes in which local exploitation, which perforates forest cover, occurs alongside extensive forest clearings, reducing forests to small and isolated patches surrounded by agricultural lands. In addition, the temporal diminution of Pf's variability along with the increment of the mean slope of the Pf 's scalograms, indicate a simplification of the spatial pattern of forest over time. The observed changes have most likely been the result of the interplay between human activities and environmental constraints, which have shaped the spatial patterns of forests across scales. Based on our results, strategies for the conservation and sustainable management of the dry Chaco should take into account both the context of each habitat location and the scales over which a forest pattern might be preserved, altered or restored.

Changes in plant species composition of coastal dune habitats over a 20-year period.

Coastal sandy ecosystems are increasingly being threatened by human pressure, causing loss of biodiversity, habitat degradation and landscape modifications. However, there are still very few detailed studies focussing on compositional changes in coastal dune plant communities over time. In this work, we investigated how coastal dune European Union (EU) habitats (from pioneer annual beach communities to Mediterranean scrubs on the landward fixed dunes) have changed during the last 20 years. Using phytosociological relevés conducted in 1989-90 and in 2010-12, we investigated changes in floristic composition over time. We then compared plant cover and the proportion of ruderal, alien and habitat diagnostic species ('focal species') in the two periods. Finally, we used Ellenberg indicator values to define the 'preferences' of the plant species for temperature and moisture. We found that only fore dune habitats showed significant differences in species cover between the two time periods, with higher plant cover in the more recent relevés and a significant increase in thermophilic species. Although previous studies have demonstrated consistent habitat loss in this area, we observed that all coastal dune plant communities remain well represented, after a 20-year period. However, fore dunes have been experiencing significant compositional changes. Although we cannot confirm whether the observed changes are strictly related to climatic changes, to human pressure or to both, we hypothesize that a moderate increment in average yearly temperature may have promoted the increase in plant cover and the spread of thermophilic species. Thus, even though human activities are major driving forces of change in coastal dune vegetation, at the community scale climatic factors may also play important roles. Our study draws on re-visitation studies which appear to constitute a powerful tool for the assessment of the conservation status of EU habitats.

Marine litter in Mediterranean sandy littorals: Spatial distribution patterns along central Italy coastal dunes.

Sandy shores are generally considered important sinks for marine litter and the presence of this litter may represent a serious threat to biotic communities and dune integrity mostly due to cleaning activities carried out through mechanical equipment. In spring (April-May) 2012 we sampled 153 2×2m random plots to assess the spatial distribution patterns of litter on Central Italy sandy shores. We analysed the relationship between the presence of litter and coastal dune habitats along the sea-inland gradient. Our results showed that the most frequent litter items were plastic and polystyrene. Differences of marine litter spatial distribution were found between upper beach and fore dune habitats and fixed dune habitats: embryo dune and mobile dune habitats show the highest frequency of litter, but, surprisingly, marine litter did not impact fixed dune habitats, these possibly acting as a natural barrier protecting the inner part of the coast from marine litter dispersion.

Characterization of the regulatory mechanisms of activating transcription factor 3 by hypertrophic stimuli in rat cardiomyocytes.

AIMS: Activating transcription factor 3 (ATF3) is a stress-activated immediate early gene suggested to have both detrimental and cardioprotective role in the heart. Here we studied the mechanisms of ATF3 activation by hypertrophic stimuli and ATF3 downstream targets in rat cardiomyocytes. METHODS AND RESULTS: When neonatal rat cardiomyocytes were exposed to endothelin-1 (ET-1, 100 nM) and mechanical stretching in vitro, maximal increase in ATF3 expression occurred at 1 hour. Inhibition of extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) by PD98059 decreased ET-1- and stretch-induced increase of ATF3 protein but not ATF3 mRNA levels, whereas protein kinase A (PKA) inhibitor H89 attenuated both ATF3 mRNA transcription and protein expression in response to ET-1 and stretch. To characterize further the regulatory mechanisms upstream of ATF3, p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling was investigated using a gain-of-function approach. Adenoviral overexpression of p38α, but not p38ß, increased ATF3 mRNA and protein levels as well as DNA binding activity. To investigate the role of ATF3 in hypertrophic process, we overexpressed ATF3 by adenovirus-mediated gene transfer. In vitro, ATF3 gene delivery attenuated the mRNA transcription of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1), and enhanced nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) and Nkx-2.5 DNA binding activities. Reduced PAI-1 expression was also detected in vivo in adult rat heart by direct intramyocardial adenovirus-mediated ATF3 gene delivery. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate that ATF3 activation by ET-1 and mechanical stretch is partly mediated through ERK and cAMP-PKA pathways, whereas p38 MAPK pathway is involved in ATF3 activation exclusively through p38α isoform. ATF3 activation caused induction of modulators of the inflammatory response NF-κB and Nkx-2.5, as well as attenuation of pro-fibrotic and pro-inflammatory proteins IL-6 and PAI-1, suggesting cardioprotective role for ATF3 in the heart.

The impact of Acacia saligna invasion on Italian coastal dune EC habitats.

Alien species can represent a threat to several ecosystems because they can alter species relationships and ecosystem function. In Italy, Acacia saligna is a major invader and it forms dense stands in coastal environments. We analyze the impact of A. saligna in Italian Mediterranean dune systems. We randomly sampled coastal dune vegetation and investigated its floristic composition with ordination techniques. We compared species richness in invaded and non-invaded plots with rarefaction curves and analyzed the frequency of focal and ruderal species. A. saligna invaded Mediterranean scrub (habitats 2250* and 2260) and coastal Pinus dune wood (habitat 2270*) and it is particularly prevalent in sunny areas of habitat 2270*. We observed an increase in ruderal species and a decrease in focal species in the invaded plots of habitat 2270*. We suggest that more open and disturbed areas are more prone to A. saligna invasion.

The fate of threatened coastal dune habitats in Italy under climate change scenarios.

Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an "indirect" plant-species-based one and a simple "direct" one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the "direct" approach was unsatisfactory, "indirect" models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species' responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats' distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future.